The Storybook of Western Fables: Chapter 9 – “Sanctions Take Time”, By Josep Borrell.

Uncle Volodya says; “When a great genius appears in the world you may know him by this sign; that the dunces are all in confederacy against him.”

…Every little white lie takes two
(To cover up the first one)
Said and done, nothing you can do

Got your act down pretty well
I know you believe yourself but
Little voice in the back of your mind
Gonna keep you awake at night

(Start telling the, start telling the truth)
It’s time to get real
(Start telling the, start telling the truth)…

Toronto, from, “Start Telling the Truth”

“The problem with dreams is that they are always futuristic and gives a deceptive impression that there is still enough time to actualize them. The tragedy, however, is that you soon realize that the time you thought you had to fulfill the dreams has melted away before your very eyes.”

Sunday Adelaja, from “How To Become Great Through Time Conversion”

The music quote for today’s post is from Toronto, an eighties rock act from – surprise! – Toronto, Ontario. It featured lead vocalist Holly Woods, and with a girl guitarist as well (Sheron Alton), they were a shameless ripoff of American rock icons Heart. Their sound was similar to that of Heart, and in another of those bizarre coincidences that litter the archives of popular music, it was Toronto who wrote “What About Love”, which was a top-ten comeback single for Heart after a lengthy period of musical decline. I saw Toronto perform live a couple of times, and they made an energetic and compelling show. Holly Woods in particular (real name Annie) stood out; while she did not have a great vocal range, she exercised tremendous power throughout it; she could sing, and she owned the stage.

Well, of course we are not here to talk about Toronto, or even music; Toronto was kind enough to set the theme, which is how you and I and everyone in the west is being led down the garden path to international bankruptcy by a collection of lying bags of shit. “Start telling the truth” is a meme mostly included for sardonic amusement, because it’s too late for that in every way – too late for it to make a difference, too late to earn some grudging respect for abandoning the policy of bullshitting us right to our faces…too late. Decisions taken by those entrusted to take them have set us on a course to grappling with the ‘new normal’, in which prosperity plays an increasingly diminished role except for the usual protected class.

If you were looking for a representative face for that class, you couldn’t do much better than Chief Fool of the European Union, Josep Borrell; in this piece he describes the western sanctions which are supposed to ruin Russia as a ‘slow-action poison, a little like arsenic’. In that assessment, he was not entirely foolish – it was in his attribution of that desirable fate that he erred, because it is not Russia which is being ruined by sanctions. It is us.

Oh, I know the tone of the article suggests ordinary Russians yearn for the western products that made their slatternly hovels bearable and their miserable lives less grim – if you nose around a bit, as a journalist, you can usually find a liberal in Moscow, some disadvantaged hipster whose lunch is ashes in his mouth if it is not garnished with French cheese. Like Holly told us, it’s time to get real, so let’s do that – I live in a country that is not touched by western sanctions, and I often go months without tasting French cheese, and Brie or Camembert from the Comox Valley tastes just as good to me. The writers of the referenced article – and Josep Borrell and other assorted Euromorons – would like you to believe that if Russian oligarchs cannot get access to baby-soft calfskin briefcases from Italy, they will fall into a fit of pique and start the ball of revolution rolling. To get a conceptual grasp of how stupid that was, and is, let’s review a definition of the term ‘oligarch’. Oh, look at that – Merriam-Webster has a special category of oligarch, called ‘Russian oligarch’. If you’ll permit me a brief digression, do you know why that is? It’s because the privileged who control great wealth and political power in western countries and their allies are never referred to as ‘oligarchs’ – that term has negative connotations. So although they are functionally oligarchs, they are labeled ‘entrepreneurs’, or ‘tycoons’.

Anyway; oligarch:

…in Russia and other countries that succeeded the Soviet Union : one of a class of individuals who through private acquisition of state assets amassed great wealth that is stored especially in foreign accounts and properties and who typically maintain close links to the highest government circles.

Great wealth, stored especially in foreign accounts. Well, the latter is less true as we go along, because when the west runs up against a law that prevents it from doing what it wants to do, it simply removes or rewrites it, or announces it is not a law at all in special circumstances such as those which arise when it wants to do something but a law would prevent it from doing it. This let-me-do-it re-imagination of the term ‘law’ has seen the west confiscate great swaths of Russian assets stored in foreign banks, so ‘oligarchs’ are increasingly careful where they locate their deposits and assets. But all of that is beside the point, which is whether western sanctions inhibit me, as a very wealthy and powerful individual, from getting my hands on a handmade calfskin Italian leather briefcase. Ha, ha! As if. Did you miss the part where it says ‘very wealthy’? I can call up a pal in Italy, maybe that nice Enzio guy who maintains the gardens at my villa, and send him a picture of the briefcase I want. I’ll have it almost as quickly as if I ordered it from Jeff Bezos.

Very Wealthy People, even when they have attracted the ire of the west by being Russian, can still get things done because they have money – in a strange way, the article in question, whether a leather briefcase or a Mont Blanc Meisterstück Glacier Solitaire Fountain Pen (a great deal, because the personalization is free!!) – takes on added cachet because they had to outsmart the west to get it.

For the rest of us who are not wealthy oligarchs, a tremendous amount of the fabricated or manufactured goods where we shop come from China. Not only does China pointedly ignore western screeching to cut Russia off from those manufactured goods, it has developed into Russia’s strongest ally and probably sells it manufactured goods at a discount, just for spite. Because China will not do as it is ordered by Washington and Brussels, it has evolved into a co-enemy, with Russia, of those illustrious powers, and relations between China and the west are steadily worsening rather than improving. Whose supply of inexpensive consumer goods is in peril? Russia’s?

If you’re the type of person who understands things better if they appear as a graph, this should put paid to the always-absurd Borrellian slow-action poison theory – the slowest thing in that whole notion is Borrell himself. At home in the country he runs, which is the only metric which really matters to him, Putin is 5% more popular now than he was in September of last year, and his current approval ranking with what must be assumed to be his oligarchs and his commoners alike stands at 80%. If a 30% approval ranking is ‘Get The Fuck Out Of Here’ – like Emile Macron’s is – then 80% is ‘Untouchable’. For everyone except Borrell and The Euromorons, happy in their fool’s paradise, western sanctions against Russia are about as effective as a handle on a snowball.

However, against the economies of Europe and the west, they have worked a treat. As guiding light of the Consistently Wrong Party, Michael McFaul says above; “To state the obvious, the goal of sanctions is to end the war. The war has not ended. That means sanctions have not accomplished the goal that we set out.” Never more at home than he is when stating the obvious, McFaul nonetheless misses a vital corollary – because sanctions have failed to accomplish the goals YOU set out does not necessarily mean they have failed to accomplish other consequential effects.

And they are. Western sanctions, and the numbingly-stupid determination to pursue them despite unambiguous evidence that they are not only not working as desired, but are causing real and cumulative damage to the sanctioners, are ushering in the de-industrialization of Europe.

The cost of energy — driven to record levels in 2022 by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its shut-off of vital gas pipelines — has become too much for many manufacturing firms to remain competitive if they stay in Europe. At the same time, a vast package of American subsidies for green industry has shocked and angered EU officials, who see the U.S. — a supposed ally — tempting businesses to relocate across the Atlantic.

Well, I suppose that’s one way of looking at it. In fact, it was Russia’s reaction to western sanctions – which Europe at first adopted reluctantly and then with increasing alacrity and mean-spiritedness, which eventually triggered the shutdown of gas pipelines. But even then, actual shutdown did not come until Canada – at America’s urging – impounded pumps from the Nord Stream pipeline after they were sent to the parent company in Canada for routine but mandated maintenance.

The turbines — which were scheduled for maintenance in Montreal — were initially caught under sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. But Canada waived the sanctions under pressure from Germany after Russia began scaling back the flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipeline…One turbine was returned to Germany earlier this year, but Gazprom refused to accept it. Joly later said Canada would return the remaining five turbines.

Nothing too hard to understand there, is there? Even though Russia was the target of sanctions created with the express purpose of applying pressure through hardships imposed on the population, it continued to supply gas to its enemies. It had no choice in sending the pumps for maintenance, which was mandated; if not carried out, the warranty would be voided. The European Commission applauded the eventual Canadian decision to return the pumps to Russia, claiming the decision would ‘remove Putin’s excuses for not sending more gas’. Ukraine was livid with fury, although of course it expected Europe to continue sending it money and weapons no matter how tough things became for Europeans. Donation money from the west even paid Ukrainian pensions, so Zelensky’s government could focus on fighting Russia. Grampie Biden’s sweepers attempted to ‘fact check’ the claim out of existence, but the best they could do was infer that this was not news, as Biden had announced it ever so long ago.

The points I am trying to make, without getting too deep into the weeds, are (a) Russia had plenty of justification to reduce the pipeline gas flow to Europe, it was not just Putin being a jerk, (b) Europe wanted increased flows of inexpensive gas because even just reducing it was causing record price increases, and (c) Ukrainians did not give a fuck about European problems so long as they did not affect the flow of money.

The United States must have doubted the acrimony storm would be enough to keep the Nord Stream pipeline shut down. In September of last year, charges placed on the pipelines by American divers under cover of a NATO naval exercise blew up the pipelines. Europe adopted its own don’t-ask-don’t-tell policy, and refused to even put the question to Washington. German political opposition figure Maximilian Krah excoriated German Chancellor Scholz for his silence, claiming the act which ripped the German economy to pieces actually solved a headache for Scholz:

Krah argued that the sabotage ended a long-term headache for the Scholz government.

“The problem is that this is tearing the German economy to pieces and significantly impoverishes Germany. Moreover, the billions spent by Germany on this gas project, which ensured us cheap energy, are lost, but the coalition which governs Germany does not care. Officially, Scholz knows nothing. Apparently, we live in a democracy,” he added.

Returning to the previous reference on deindustrialization, “The energy crisis is particularly acute for sectors like glass, chemicals, metals, fertilizer, pulp and paper, ceramics and cement, which require the most energy to fuel their industrial production — and between them employ 8 million people. But facing ever-growing economic competition from both China and now an increasingly protectionist United States, European leaders openly warn of a contagion of “deindustrialization” affecting all manufacturing across the continent…“High energy prices in Europe will continue to affect our fellow citizens, but also entire industrial supply chains and [small and medium-sized businesses],” Breton wrote. “At the same time, China, the U.S. and other countries are trying — not without success — to attract our industrial capacities.

“Without a strong manufacturing base,” Breton’s email states plainly, “Europe’s security of supply, export ability and job creation is at risk.”

Poor, poor Europe!! I’m tempted to snort with laughter here, not only because I do not live in Europe at present, but because as Europe knew full well – or at least one member of the European Parliament did – the United States had adopted a law in 2019 which claimed as its express raison d’etre “Protecting Europe’s Energy Security”. I guess it did not feel any need to explain that it intended to do this by selling energy to Europe at four times the price the Russians were selling it for, and by using big juicy subsidies funded with freshly-printed money to coax European industries to set up shop in the States, where they could count on cheaper energy than they were paying in Europe while learning to be good American taxpayers. Pretty neat, huh? America gets to be host to former European industries, harvesting their corporate taxes, while those Europeans who still have jobs are a captive retail market for American goods because Europe doesn’t make anything itself.

Think I’m exaggerating? What would Germany be without its carmakers? Is there any more iconic carmaker in Germany than Volkswagen? Well, Volkswagen is already offshoring its production to the USA and China. The notion of China as a beneficiary should alarm both Europe and America.

VW executives have previously hinted that China was becoming their biggest priority and with good reason. The company outsells every other brand on the Chinese market by nearly a million vehicles annually. Volkswagen presently enjoys a 16 percent market share for the region and believes it can do even better as it increases electric vehicle sales over the next several years. Meanwhile, the European zone is highly developed and looking quite beleaguered — especially as inflation stemming from the pandemic has been made worse by the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Most of you will not need reminding that the powerhouse economy of Europe is – or was – Germany. A Germany with a staggering, gasping economy means no more bailouts for member states who never learned very well how to make up or follow a budget.

Losing manufacturing capacity means losing jobs, and that — said Luc Triangle, general secretary of the IndustriALL European Trade Union, which represents manufacturing workers — has “political consequences. We are not exaggerating when we say that European industry — starting with the energy-intensive industries on the frontline — is facing an existential crisis,” Triangle said. The same “existential” threat applies to the 8 million workers in the energy-intensive sector, IndustriALL has warned. In its annual labor market review, published last month, the European Commission said that employment rates in the EU remained strong despite the war, with unemployment falling to 6 percent in July. But it also warned that continuing high energy costs pose a “major risk” to jobs in the EU, particularly in energy-intensive manufacturing sectors.

“We don’t see it in the data yet … but it is a concern for the future, maybe as soon as this year,” said the economics minister of an EU country.

Perhaps the numpties in European politics don’t see it yet, but the people see it; my, yes, they do.

Germany has witnessed some of its most disruptive strikes in decades since last year, when the war in Ukraine sent energy and food prices soaring, leading to union pressure for wages to rise in line with living costs.

Everybody who works for a living wants more money. Why do they want more money? Because what they’re paid now will not keep them in the living standard they knew only a couple of years ago. Why won’t their wages buy a decent standard of living? Because energy costs are too high, and everything that is made or shipped or created depends on energy. Why are energy costs so high? You know. And it isn’t ‘because of the Russo-Ukrainian war’.

It’s not just Germany, of course: as important as Germany is to the EU, if things were rosy everywhere else, other nations could rally to Germany’s side and help out. But they’re not. Rosy, that is. France is struggling to cope with some of the most violent street protests in its history, kicked off when Monsieur L’Incompetent Macron arbitrarily raised the retirement age to qualify for a pension to 64 years, without going to the bother of holding a parliamentary vote where it might have been defeated. Apparently some of les gens were upset with the notion of working for even longer, and perhaps dying without ever being able to receive a pension so that France could pledge neverending support to Ukraine. In Britain – no longer part of the EU but still part of Europe, “The British government is engaged in pay disputes across several sectors as workers demand higher wages to keep pace with surging inflation, with strikes in schools, on railways and in hospitals taking place on a regular basis.”

Europe’s leadership crisis is merely a bellwether of simmering discontent throughout the west over being nominally represented by politicians who are thick as pigshit, who keep taking the most irrational decisions and who are proud to answer the call to support the stated needs and wants of a foreign government over the increasingly-panicky cries of their own citizens.

Discontent which, as I alluded to earlier and not to put too fine a point on it, does not prevail to any significant degree in Russia, where the leader has the approval of 80% of the electorate despite the country and its citizens being the target of sanctions the west hopes will impoverish and ruin the population. Russians trust that Vladimir Putin is doing his best and deciding wisely in his endeavors to shield them from western madness and deliberate stupidity. Europe cannot afford to wait around for Borrell’s ‘slow-action poison’ to do its work, if it ever will, because existential crisis is lapping at Europe’s doorstep and threatening to pull it under. Europe has a tiger by the tail; an indisputable fact of which the Kremlin is only too aware.

“European countries see what is happening with their economies when they are forced not only to finance the war in Ukraine, but also to foot the bill for everyday life in that country because the Kiev regime is incapable of handling [its own fiscal affairs] and of accomplishing anything in that area. Europe is losing its competitive edge as a continent that has been forced to turn its back on inexpensive Russian gas; [it] is moving toward the brink of deindustrialization as European business decamps for the United States,” Lavrov said.

Music brought us in, and I think I have the perfect artist to take us out; originator of ‘The Bakersfield Sound’ and all ’round nice-guy American artist and Country Music Hall-of-Famer Alvis Edgar Owens Jr., better known to the world as ‘Buck’ Owens; take it away, Buck!!

I’ve got a tiger by the tail, it’s plain to see,
I won’t be much when you get through with me;
Well I’m a-losin’ weight and I’m turnin’ mighty pale
Looks like I’ve got a tiger by the tail…