It Will Be Easier to Blow Sunshine Up Your Ass When You Can’t Afford Pants.

Uncle Volodya says, “If talking to yourself when alone is a sign of madness, then listening to yourself in front of others is doubly so.”

“…But the fact remains, nevertheless, that you can’t help if they persist in the course of behaviour which originally got them into their trouble. For example, you can’t preserve people from the horrors of war if they won’t give up the pleasures of nationalism. You can’t save them from slumps and depressions so long as they go on thinking exclusively in terms of money and regarding money as the supreme good. You can’t avert revolution and enslavement if they will identify progress with the increase of centralization and prosperity with the intensifying of mass production. You can’t preserve them from their collective madness and suicide if they persist in paying divine honours to ideals which are merely projections of their own personalities – in other words, if they insist on worshiping themselves…”

Aldous Huxley, from “After Many a Summer Dies the Swan”

She likes to play for double or nothin’
tellin’ all the boys she’s hot;
And everybody knows she’s ready
To give it everything that she got:

She’s a roller, a high roller, baby, my, my..

April Wine, from “Roller”.

Yes, she’s a roller; my, my. The problem is, she’s rolling with your money – and if you live in Europe, the standard of living that you and your children can expect down the road depends on her telling you the truth. And I’m afraid the odds are just not on that possibility. Judging by performance to date, like.

In fact, although I’m not a psychologist and don’t even play one on TV, the conclusion I have reluctantly arrived upon is that Ursula Von Der Leyen believes you and all the other European voters are stupid. Oh, the extent of the global lumpenproletariat assumed to be too stupid to reason for itself goes considerably beyond Europe, and it’s causing problems which extend well beyond its shores. But it is Europe which is Ground Zero for her unwavering line of self-stroking bullshit, and it is Europe which will bear its effects, perhaps and conceivably to its ruin.

Did you think that if you could somehow struggle through this winter, the energy crisis would recede and the nightmare would be over? Au contraire, mon ami. But you could be forgiven your optimism, because Von Der Leyen – let’s just call her VDL, as her co-workers are said to do, for simplicity – wants you to think so, although the most elementary reading-between-the-lines analysis should give you that ice-water-down-your-back tickle of unease. Because the title of the article is fairly clear; the energy crisis could worsen next year. But never mind that for now – take a bow, says VDL; you guys were all brilliant with your self-sacrifice, wearing a sweater while you’re doing the supper dishes in cold water, skipping the shower…magnificent. You certainly showed that psychopath up in the Kremlin.

“We have been able to manage, we have been able to withstand the blackmail. We have acted, and we have acted successfully,” von der Leyen said at a press conference in Brussels. She touted Europe’s success in carrying out its plan to reduce Russian gas demand by two-thirds before the end of the year…

Considering NATO operatives blew up the twin pipelines carrying most of the supplied Russian gas to Europe in September, I’m not sure ‘blackmail’ is the right word. But keep that fact in mind, because other projections are not so sunny as VDL’s.

The bloc faces a potential gas gap between supply and demand of 27 billion cubic meters in 2023, according to the report. Such a situation could occur if Russia’s gas deliveries drop to zero and if China’s LNG imports rebound following a pandemic-related decline in 2022, the authors explained. “Many of the circumstances that allowed EU countries to fill their storage sites ahead of this winter may well not be repeated in 2023,” Birol said.

‘Such a situation’ IS going to occur; you can pretty much count on it. Russia could not send gas through either leg of the Nord Stream pipelines if it wanted to help such a worthless bunch of cretins as the Europeans are, those pipelines are now just so much scrap metal on the seabed. I think we can agree Russia is not going to send augmented gas supplies through the pipeline network which crosses Ukraine, and pay Ukraine transit fees that will immediately be turned into ammunition supplies to shoot at Russia’s soldiers; besides, the Ukrainian Gas Transit System is in nearly as bad shape as the destroyed Nord Stream lines. So this year, as horrible as it may have seemed to you, Europe got at least some Russian gas for an entire half of the year, and normal supplies for the first couple of months. Next year, it’s zero. Goose egg.

If Europe does not get any Russian gas next year, it is already looking at a deficit of nearly 60 BcM. Fifty-seven, according to the report. The Happy Days Are Here Again cheerleaders claim that the deficit will be partly offset – 30 BcM of it – by Even Greater Economies of consumption, mumble nuclear mumble and yes, even more renewables!!

“A stronger push on energy efficiency, renewables, heat pumps and simple energy saving actions is vital to head off the risk of shortages and further vicious price spikes next year,” he added.

The IEA’s analysis projected that baseline demand for the EU in 2023 would be 395 billion cubic meters, with a baseline supply of 338 billion cubic meters — leaving an initial 57 billion cubic meter supply-demand gap.

That deficit will be partially filled by 30 billion cubic meters worth of expected changes in efficiency, hydroelectric and nuclear operations and the integration of renewables, according to the report.

Was that a little sob I heard? Yes, I’m afraid that despite the icing sugar on top of the layer of shit in that paragraph, some of you must have spotted the ‘nuclear’ – how is greater reliance on nuclear power when you had a cheap and plentiful source of natural gas going to be explained away by Annalena ‘But I’m wearing green panties!’ Baerbock, or that stubble-faced mouthpiece Habeck? – the ‘expected changes in efficiency’, and the frantic repetition of ‘renewables’, which is a word you use when you want to see the pain taken away by magic, like in ‘Harry Potter and the Energy Crisis’.

Let’s assume, for a blissful moment, that those conditions could be made to come about. Nuclear reactors scheduled for decommisioning will have to soldier on yet awhile, and new ones may actually be required; that’s after decades of patient work toward phasing out nuclear power. And yes, after your sacrifices to spite the evil Lord Putin, you’re going to…get to make even more sacrifices! Get used to bundling up to watch the telly – when you’ve saved for months to pay for the electricity, as a special treat to yourselves – because this is not a one-off. It’s a lifestyle change that, unless your income can be made to double, is going to settle in for the long haul. And renewables; yes, Lord God above, renewables; the money pit that keeps on taking. Yes, advances have been made and the percentage of usable energy that can be extracted is rising, but…well, we’ll get to that in a minute. But first, I want to draw your attention back to the projection that even if all these measures succeed beyond the wildest dreams of your leaders…you’re still going to be short 27 BcM.

On the bright side, I read that if you bake a potato in the oven… ahem; I mean, if you wrap it in foil and put it in the fire in the courtyard, then put it in your pocket, it will keep your hands warm for more than an hour! And then when it’s gone cold, you can eat it!

And while you’re fighting the good fight like fucking Bob Cratchit, blowing on your fingers and putting newspaper in your shoes, your leaders will be jetting about like dragonflies, going to meetings, enjoying expensive dinners, and everywhere they go they’ll be warm, warm, because the heat is never turned off on those who are working so hard for you. Remember all the government figures who told you to stay in your house during the ‘pandemic’, and as soon as the microphone was out of their face, hightailed it for the airport to go visit family or relatives? Restraint for thee, but not for me. The Downing Street Christmas Party, where the entertainment was the pitiful public huddled in their homes, masked up and terrified; the entitled pricks who told you to stay put and then scampered off to their second homes.

Well, no use crying over spilt milk, right? How about those renewables!?!

We’re going to take a trip – put it down to expenses, will you, Darya?? – to get an opinion which far exceeds my own knowledge and experience, a trip to beautiful Cardiff in sunny Wales, where the blogger who writes “The Consciousness of Sheep” lives. I don’t think I could over-endorse this resource for matters on energy and economics, especially if you are one of those people like me who are bewildered when they realize how much they’re paying after the guy at the bank explained how they were getting such a smokin’ deal. You can’t be two places at the same time, but numbers apparently can. So, without further ado…

You probably thought I was shitting you a little with that newspaper-in-your-shoes Bob Cratchit thing. And I wish I was, a little. But I’m not.

“More than 2 million of Britain’s most vulnerable households, facing the prospect of out-of-reach prices for gas and electricity, could shiver in silence this winter by disconnecting from the grid without their suppliers knowing, the chief executive of one utility warned.

As a result, there’s likely to be an increase in the number of winter illnesses and deaths among those using traditional prepayment meters, which have no digital connectivity and resemble those used in the 1970s, said Bill Bullen, founder of Utilita Energy. He submitted a ‘red flag’ report to the UK government calling on companies to take several curative measures, including swapping old equipment for smart meters so suppliers can detect when someone has unplugged.

“’Unless the customer has refused a smart meter, there’s no excuse for legacy meters to exist today,’ Bullen said after his company surveyed 750 pay-as-you-go households. ‘Having no choice but to sit at home without heating or light is unacceptable, and our government and the regulator must intervene immediately to stop self-disconnections.’”

The author of the piece says he takes the concern for the poor of the head of an energy company at face value, although I’m sure it occurred to you at about the same time it did to me that he might have an entirely different reason for wanting self-disconnections stopped. Because as the author is at pains to point out, when the weakest incomes at the bottom of the energy graph take the only recourse left to them and drop out, it creates a squeeze on those in the middle who can still barely get by, making their costs higher. You were probably wondering what this has to do with renewables – here you go.

“Notice that Britain’s soon to be decommissioned nuclear power stations are running close to full capacity, and that the interconnectors from Europe are drawing close to maximum power. At the same time, however, the political class’s great hope for the future – wind – is all but absent. And even if the number of wind turbines were doubled, there still wouldn’t be enough wind.”

That’s now. Forgive me for pointing out that it’s not even properly winter yet, and that Europe’s movers and shakers crowed a couple of months ago that it would be a mild winter, and the gas storages are nearly full. Your sacrifices are gratefully acknowledged. Plan to repeat them.

Oh, but it’s not just energy, is it? They keep telling you, gesturing vaguely, that there’s no whole-wheat bread or garlic powder this week because ‘supply-chain issues’. Is that so? Before you answer, check out the chart of the UK’s energy use per-capita in that article, and read this:

“Energy – or at least that part which is available for productive work, exergy – is the primary driver of economic growth and productivity.  In short, the more energy there is to go around, the more goods and services we are able to produce.  This is broadly what was happening in the left-hand side of the chart, as the UK economy completed its post-war transition from coal to oil.  The impact of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks is easily visible, and explains why the UK economy experienced its stagflationary crises from the mid-1970s through the early 1980s.  The once and done North Sea oil and gas surplus up to 2005 provided the basis for the debt-based boom in the 1990s and early 2000s.  But once the UK became a net importer of energy, and without access to cheap fossil fuels, it has been downhill ever since.”

That’s the UK. Now multiply its problems times The World, and subtract those countries who are net energy providers. Ursula Von Der Leyen and other European toerag political pretenders are jubilant that you’ve secured supplies of LNG from politically-reliable providers. But (a) it’s not enough, nor will it ever be, and (b) Jesus on a pogo stick, look what it costs. Connoisseurs of irony will be struck dumb with admiration upon reading these two succeeding paragraphs:

European natural gas prices slumped as record imports of liquefied natural gas helped to offset a blast of winter weather that’s testing the region’s resilience to the energy crisis. 

LNG imports into northwest Europe have surged in recent weeks as high prices attract shipments. The continent is also seeking to prevent its gas stockpiles from dwindling as demand for heating soars. 

That’s kind of like the bank’s numbers magic – European gas prices are down because suppliers have sent so much LNG, because it fetches such high prices. Huh?? As for politically-reliable providers, if you think the USA will not bend you over the table and screw you until your socks fall down once you have formed a dependence on its product and dare to refuse changes it says it needs to see, well…I just don’t know what to say, except your faith is humbling. During such a future rogering, it might occur to the rogerees that, you know something? Russia never insisted on exchanging political reforms or preferential trade agreements for energy supplies; they were content to leave us pretty much alone so long as we paid on time.

The beautiful dream of a grassy utopia lulled by the music of chirping birds – at least in the summer months – has already been more possible than it is now: natural gas is what’s referred to as a ‘balancing fuel’, versatile enough to make up shortfalls and easily stored when not drawn upon.

“In a nutshell, wind turbines and solar panels generate too much electricity when it is not needed and not enough when it is.  And in the absence of a viable storage mechanism, intermittency has to be balanced with fossil fuel generation which becomes increasingly expensive as the proportion of wind and solar in the electricity mix rises.”

Alas! that such evil days should come upon us! But nobody could have known, right? Somebody – usually a politician – always says that. And it might not always be horseshit. But if you haven’t already died of horseshit poisoning, you might as well know, it is this time.

Way back between 2004 and 2006, when getting off of Russian gas was just sloganeering by high-minded know-nothings and nobody was unduly concerned about prices or supply disruptions, the BBC did a ‘what if?’ series which modeled various then-unimagined (except by the producers, obviously) crises which might confront the UK. The series was called “If…”, and one of the scenarios was…a terrorist attack on the Vyborg terminal of a pipeline which was not even built yet – Nord Stream I.

The programme makers were not clairvoyant, and so could not have foreseen the exact cause – sanctions – of Russian gas supply disruption.  But they were fairly close – the programme begins with a terror attack on the Vyborg terminal of what was then only the proposed Nord Stream One pipeline.  But it was obvious enough to anyone paying attention back in 2004, that policy decisions made since the privatisation of electricity in 1990 had left the UK increasingly vulnerable to disruptions in its supply of gas… and that, in the future, this meant the pan-European supply of gas from Russia.

Central to the crisis anticipated in the programme is the hubris involved in the ideologically-driven attempt to create a competitive quasi-market out of a natural monopoly.  A natural monopoly exists where there is an absence of real competition because consumers have no real ability to choose.  Like railways and water, where we have no choice about whose pipes or tracks we use, we all receive our electricity and gas down the same wires and pipelines.  The quasi-market is created by separating the billing company from the physical grid, the generators and the coal, oil and gas extraction companies.  The billing companies then compete in the quasi-market by attempting to bid down the wholesale price, with the regulator ostensibly acting to maintain competition in order to lower prices, but somehow always allowing the companies to make higher than inflation profits… even during recessions.

Read that last sentence again. Is that still happening, even as people watch the security promised by their government in exchange for the trust implied by their votes slipping out of sight? I’m sorry to tell you that it is. Unless you’re a shareholder in energy companies, in which case you probably would like me to shut up, since you are making out like a bandit.

Dividends from oil firms rose by 75.1 per cent to a record $46.4bn in the the three months through September and pushed up the total figure paid out globally, according to the Global Dividend Index from Janus Henderson. The total dished out to investors rose by seven per cent on a headline basis to $415.9bn. More than 85 per cent of UK firms hiked their payout in the third quarter of the year, the firm found, as UK dividends rose 2.5 per cent on an underlying basis.

Well, that’s just…depressing. Hey, I know what would cheer everyone up! Let’s SING!!! Does everybody know, “White Christmas”? One and two and three…